HDB Resale Volume dropped 38% in October — We Bust 8 Myths Behind the Numbers
HDB Resale Volume dropped 38% in October — We Bust 8 Myths Behind the Numbers
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In October 2025, the Straits Times reported a staggering 38.4% plunge in HDB resale transactions—the sharpest monthly drop since the 2020 circuit breaker. Million-dollar flat sales were halved. Headlines like these have sparked concern among homeowners, buyers, and investors alike. Is the market crashing? Are buyers disappearing? Is this the start of a downturn?
The truth is more nuanced.
Singapore’s property market is evolving, not collapsing. Behind the dramatic numbers are structural shifts, policy effects, and buyer psychology—all of which deserve a closer look. In this article, we break down the most common beliefs circulating in WhatsApp chats, coffee shop conversations, and online forums—and separate fact from fiction.
Let’s bust the myths behind the October HDB resale plunge:
Myth 1: “This is a Property Market Crash”
Myth 1: “This is a Property Market Crash”
Status: Busted
Despite the sharp transaction plunge, official sources show only mild price declines, with Q4 2025 set for <5% annual growth and housing fundamentals remaining strong. The downward shift reflects normalization after rapid growth, not a crash.
Myth 2: “Million-dollar Flats Can’t Sell Because Prices Collapsed Everywhere”
Myth 2: “Million-dollar Flats Can’t Sell Because Prices Collapsed Everywhere”
Status: Busted
Million-dollar deals saw the biggest monthly drop, mainly in mature and prime estates, but affordable segments (below $500,000) are increasing their share. Transaction volume is more affected by high BTO supply and changing buyer preferences than by widespread devaluation.
Myth 3: “Only Economic Slowdown and High Interest Rates Killed Demand”
Myth 3: “Only Economic Slowdown and High Interest Rates Killed Demand”
Status: Partly Busted
Macro headwinds (e.g. slower GDP growth, rising rates) play a role, but October’s main disruptors were the record-size BTO launch and shrinking eligible resale pool as fewer flats met their Minimum Occupation Period. Most buyers are adjusting expectations, not withdrawing due to panic.
Myth 4: “It’s a Bad Time for Home Buyers”
Myth 4: “It’s a Bad Time for Home Buyers”
Status: Busted
Data shows more choice for buyers, with rising proportions of flats in the <$700,000 range and increased support from housing grants. For those waiting out high prices, more supply is set to enter the market from upcoming MOP and BTO completions, creating negotiating power and opportunity.
Myth 5: “Resale Flat Owners Are Forced to Undercut Prices—Desperation is Everywhere”
Myth 5: “Resale Flat Owners Are Forced to Undercut Prices—Desperation is Everywhere”
Status: Busted
Official reports show price growth slowing but not reversing. The plunge in “million-dollar” transactions is about value recalibration and tighter buyer budgets, not widespread distressed sales; sellers still possess holding power, especially in desirable locations.
Myth 6: “This Is Just a Usual Year-End Seasonal Drop”
Myth 6: “This Is Just a Usual Year-End Seasonal Drop”
Status: Partly True
Seasonal effects (school holidays, festive months) help explain weaker activity, but the magnitude (38% MoM drop) is only seen with unusually large BTO launches and regulatory changes, making this decline exceptional.
Myth 7: “There Are Fewer Opportunities for Buyers Now Than Ever Before”
Myth 7: “There Are Fewer Opportunities for Buyers Now Than Ever Before”
Status: Busted
With lower million-dollar transactions, higher supply of new and balance flats, and flat prices rebounding to more affordable ranges, buyers have greater choice. Housing grants and upcoming policy tweaks add further support, turning short-term uncertainty to strategic opportunity for price-sensitive buyers.
Myth 8: “The Economy Will Drag HDB Prices Down Across the Board”
Myth 8: “The Economy Will Drag HDB Prices Down Across the Board”
Status: Busted
Singapore’s resilience means price declines are modest and supported by employment stability, positive migration, and government interventions to maintain affordability. Most analysts expect stable or modest growth for 2025, with risk of sharp correction low.
FAQ: Wider Impacts & What’s Next?
FAQ: Wider Impacts & What’s Next?
How does this benefit buyers?
Greater supply and realistic prices mean buyers no longer face overbidding wars in most segments. Grants are making entry easier for families and singles, especially in non-mature estates.
What does it mean for sellers?
Pricing strategy is now critical. Sellers in high-demand estates can still command premiums, but expectations must adapt to growing supply, and time-to-sale could lengthen.
Will the drop cause longer-term instability?
Not likely. A slate of new flats (up to 50,000 launched by 2027) and steady demand from homeowners upgrading or right-sizing will keep the resale market balanced.
Macro View – Are Broader Trends Driving the Shift?
Macro View – Are Broader Trends Driving the Shift?
Economic Sentiment: Uncertainty globally is nudging buyers towards caution, but base demand (upgraders, first-timers) is supported by sound employment data and grants.
Policy Impact: More BTO launches and potential rule changes (e.g., income ceilings, wait-out periods) mean continued market evolution and competitive pricing for resale.
Future Supply: By 2028, a surge in MOP completions could further stabilize prices, benefiting both buyers and sellers.
Sources
Sources
- Straits Times – “HDB resale transaction volumes plunge 38% in October, lowest since 2020”
- PropNex Realty – November 2025 Market Update and Transaction Insights
- Huttons Asia – October 2025 Market Bulletin and Q3 2025 Property Report
- ERA Realty Network – Q3 2025 HDB Quarterly Trends
- OrangeTee & Tie – MOP Supply Analysis and Resale Market Commentary
- SRX Property – Monthly HDB Resale Price Index and Transaction Volume Data
- Business Times – Analysis of October 2025 resale trends and macroeconomic context
- HDB Official Site – BTO launch data and MOP statistics
- Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) – Monetary policy updates and interest rate environment
- Ministry of Trade and Industry (MTI) – Singapore GDP growth forecasts and economic outlook for 2025
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